News Items for 2022
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Risk of violence following Imran Khan Assasination attempt
There is a continued risk of political polarisation and real-world violence in Pakistan following an assassination attempt on Imran Khan during the 03 November protest march calling for snap elections. The protest march - described as a "jihad" against the current leadership - formed part of Khan's effort to challenge his ousting in April, which he claimed was part of a US-backed conspiracy involving current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Khan has also accused Sharif of being involved in his assassination attempt, which sparked outrage and has led to further political polarisation among the Pakistani electorate. There is therefore a continued risk of increased political polarisation and misinformation in Pakistani online and offline spaces, alongside a risk of real-world violence.
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Just Stop Oil protests likely to increase
Polarising disinformation on climate change is likely to increase in the event that Just Stop Oil protests continue in the coming week in the UK. The group, which has made headlines for gluing themselves to paintings and blocking major roads, has warned of continued protests until the government takes steps to address climate change and tackle what they say is a dependence on oil. As this protest action continues, disinformation and polarising narratives regarding climate change are likely to increase online.
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Imran Khan indictment likely to increase political polarisation
There is a heightened risk of conspiratorial discourse and further political polarisation in Pakistan in the coming weeks following an 08 September court announcement that it will indict former Prime Minister Imran Khan on charges of contempt of court. The decision was in response to remarks made during one of Khan's recent rallies challenging Shehbaz Sharif's appointment to Prime Minister, which he claims is part of a US-backed conspiracy, following his ousting in April. The indictment is likely to fuel similar conspiratorial discourse online from Khan’s supporters, and further polarise the country in coming week.
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BJP leader’s Islamophobic remarks risk incitement of violence
There is an increased risk of online harm against religious communities following recent Islamophobic remarks made by a senior Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) leader. The remarks have caused a backlash both online and offline, with at least 15 countries condemning the Indian government. The outrage has manifested online through high volumes of hate speech against the Hindu and Muslim communities, doxxing of the BJP leader and explicit incitement to violence – for which hundreds of people have been arrested. There is therefore an ongoing risk of inflammatory rhetoric, especially further incitement, being spread online. Given the polarised nature of Indian politics, an uptick in this rhetoric could result in continued clashes between Hindus and Muslims in coming weeks.
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Unionised teachers threaten protest in Delhi
Unionised teachers have threatened to protest outside the East Delhi Municipal Corporation (EDMC) headquarters in Delhi. The protest action is to demand the EDMC address issues towards salaries. Protest organisers are likely to call off any demonstrations should their demands be met. Tens to hundreds are likely to participate. Localised transport disruptions are likely.
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PMLN to hold a rally in Besham, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) party will hold a rally in Besham, Shangla district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The rally is the latest in a series of political demonstrations by the PMLN and its supporters to strengthen its position after taking power. Hundreds are expected to attend the gathering. Counter protests are likely, which may increase the possibility of clashes between rival party supporters. Localised disruptions to traffic are also likely as protesters rally along prominent roadways.
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AMMK to protest across Tamil Nadu to denounce property tax hike
The Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazagam (AMMK) party announced protests across Tamil Nadu state until 20 April. The protest action is to denounce a property tax hike by the ruling state party Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). Tens to hundreds are expected to participate in the protests, which will likely take place near government buildings, public venues, and prominent roadways.
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MNM party calls for protests in Tamil Nadu amid rising inflation
The Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) party has called for protests to be held across Tamil Nadu state. The protest is to denounce rising inflation and alleged worsening living standards in the state. MNM have called for the protests to commence from 1030 hrs local time in district capitals and in the state capital, Chennai. Tens to hundreds are expected to participate. Clashes are likely in protest sites where gatherings are particularly disruptive.
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Climate activists due to protest in London
Extinction Rebellion activists plan to hold protests to denounce fossil fuel investments by the British government. Participants are due to gather at 1000 hrs local time in the capital near Speakers’ Corner in Hyde Park. Security presence is expected, as previous demonstrations have resulted in major traffic disruptions and blocked train stations.
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Protests highly likely nationwide ahead of no-confidence vote
The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) has called for supporters to join in a nationwide convoy towards Islamabad, beginning 23 March and arriving 25 March, ahead of a no-confidence vote in parliament against Prime Minister Imran Khan that is due to take place on 28 March. Supporters and members of the PDM plan to stage a sit-in protest outside parliament on 25 March. Members of other government-opposing parties will likely join the PDM’s protest plans. The convoy and subsequent protests are likely to cause severe traffic disruptions along the route and across Islamabad, as thousands are expected to join.
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Protests to continue amid a continued rise in gas price
Nationwide protests are likely to continue in the week ahead due to the continued rise in gas prices across the country amid the Russia-Ukraine war. Residents, unions, and companies are likely to stage protests in major cities including state or district capitals. Severe traffic disruptions may occur if demonstrations block major roads. Authorities may attempt to disperse larger, disruptive, demonstrations, and this may lead to violent clashes between security forces and protesters.
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Baloch students to boycott clashes, protest nationwide
Students belonging to the Baloch Students Council have announced a nationwide boycott of classes. The group also stated they might hold multiple protests to pressure the government into investigating the alleged disappearances of students and academics in the country. If protests occur, travel disruptions are highly likely around demonstration sites. Violence between protesters and security forces may break out, especially if the latter attempt forcible dispersal.
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Protests, boycotts likely to continue in Karnataka
Protests and student boycotts are highly likely to continue across Karnataka state following the high court’s dismissal of the case that would see students given the right to wear hijabs to class on 15 March. Multiple protests surrounding this issue have occurred nationwide in recent months.
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Government doctors to protest at Indira Park in Hyderabad
Government doctors have called for a protest at Indira Park in Hyderabad, Telangana state. The protest action is to demand changes to recruitment policies and enhanced security at hospitals. Hundreds are expected to participate in the protest. Clashes are likely, particularly if security forces deployed to the protest site forcibly disperse activists.
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Punjab Election Results
Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have had a landslide win in the Punjab State election with AAP MP Bhagwant Mann becoming Punjab's chief minister. The election results can be found by following this
LINK.
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Heightened risk of unrest, violence during elections in UP
There is a heightened risk of unrest and violence as voters go to the polls for the seventh phase of state assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. Authorities have deployed around 25,000 security personnel to Uttar Pradesh to ensure stability and reduce the risk of violence and other types of unrest. Clashes between supporters of rival parties are likely, especially at and/or near voting centres, public venues, and government sites based on incidents in previous voting phases. Security forces are also likely to forcibly disperse crowds to enforce COVID-19-related restrictions prohibiting mass gatherings, which increases the risk of confrontations.
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Activist group organises countrywide protests across UK
Activist group People’s Assembly is calling for countrywide protests to protest rising prices, inflation, and increased tax. The group has organised protests in most major cities, including London, Glasgow, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, and Nottingham. Protesters in London are due to meet at Parliament Square at 1300 hrs local time. Most protests are scheduled to begin after 1200 hrs, and are likely to cause transport disruptions.
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London Heathrow catering workers due to strike
Catering drivers based at London Heathrow airport have called for strike to demand better working conditions and increased salaries. Heavy good vehicle (HGV) drivers will strike between 0400 hrs local time on 4 March and 2359 hrs local time on 5 March. Unite union, representing the drivers, said that strike may cause major disruption to long haul flights including British Airways and Cathay Pacific.
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Rescheduled state assembly elections in Manipur
The rescheduled state assembly elections in Manipur state are set to take place, as the first of two voting phases. There will likely be a heightened security presence across the state in the days leading up to, during and in the aftermath of the vote until 10 March, when the results will be announced. The presence of several, active militant groups operating in the state increase the risk of attacks at sensitive locations, including government buildings, political party offices, and transport hubs and terminals.
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Heightened risk of unrest, violence during elections in UP
There is a heightened risk of unrest and violence as voters go to the polls for the fifth phase of state assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. Authorities have deployed around 25,000 security personnel to Uttar Pradesh to ensure stability and reduce the risk of violence and other types of unrest. Clashes between supporters of rival parties are likely, especially at and/or near voting centres, public venues, and government sites based on incidents in previous voting phases. Security forces are also likely to forcibly disperse crowds to enforce COVID-19-related
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BJP supporters likely to protest at Azad Maidan, Mumbai
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporters as well as members of the Maratha community are likely to stage protests at Azad Maidan in Mumbai, Maharashtra. The likely protest action is in support of demands for the state government to reserve more university and job placements for the Maratha community. Hundreds are likely to participate in the event that protests do take place, though Maratha organisations have claimed that thousands of Maratha activists will attend. Disruptions to traffic and transport are likely.
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Xi-Putin and the balance of power
A very interesting article about the Xi-Putin relationship and how this may affect the global balance of power from an Indian perspective. The article has been written by Ajay Singh for the Sunday Guardian Live. You can find the article by following this
LINK.
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Elevated risk of violence, unrest amid assembly elections in UP
There is an elevated risk of violence and civil unrest during the third phase of assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh state. Clashes between supporters of rivalling groups as well as associated protests are likely. There will be a heightened security presence after authorities also deployed around 25,000 security personnel. Security forces will likely forcibly disperse crowds to impose COVID-19-related restrictions prohibiting mass gatherings.
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TFL workers to continue striking two days per week until 19 June
TFL drivers have confirmed on-going overnight strikes to denounce pensions and working conditions. Participants say the strikes will continue “every Friday and Saturday night” until Sunday 19 June. Train services in the capital, particularly the Central, Victoria and London Overground lines will be affected from 2030 hrs to 0430 hrs local time. Simultaneously, the RMT union has instructed its members to strike on 1 and 3 March in addition to the overnight strikes.
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Protests against hijab-ban in Karnataka
Students and activists have been protesting an alleged state ban on the wearing of a hijab in public education institutions in Karnataka since 8 February and are highly likely to continue until the ban is repealed. Demonstrations in Shivamogga, Bagalkot, Davangere, and Udupi have seen violent clashes between students and police with at least 40 injured. Schools in the area have been closed since 9 February due to the violence. Videos of the protests present on social media will likely prompt further solidarity protests in other schools across the country.
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Pakistan: The churn within
A very interesting article about the internal issues within Pakistan from an Indian perspective written by Ajay Singh for the Sunday Guardian Live. You can find the article by following this
LINK.
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Farmer coalition, labour unions to stage nationwide protests
The farmer union coalition Sanyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM) and labour unions are planning to stage nationwide protests. The protest action is to pressure the federal government in fulfilling pending demands such as a minimum support price for produce, following agreements to look into the demands after it repealed contentious agricultural laws in December 2021. The largest turnout is likely to be in the Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab states, with tens to hundreds expected to participate. Protesters could march along roadways and set up roadblocks, prompting disruptions to traffic and transport. Clashes are likely based on previous demonstrations, especially if security forces attempt to forcibly disperse crowds.
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Workers at Visakhapatnam Steel Plant in AP to strike
Unionised workers at the Visakhapatnam Steel Plant in Andhra Pradesh state are set to strike. The strike action is to demand increased wages. Associated protests are likely to take place outside the plant site, along nearby prominent roadways and intersections, public venues, and government buildings. Tens to hundreds are expected to participate, though this is unlikely to cause significant disruption. Traffic disruption is still possible in localised areas near protest sites.
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Heightened security presence for Republic Day across the country
There is a heightened security presence after officials issued a terror warning for parts of the country ahead of Republic Day. Authorities have issued warnings in Delhi and cities within Goa, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Manipur, Uttarakhand. The deployment of security forces at potentially high-risk locations like railway stations, bus terminals and airports will likely cause disruptions to traffic and transport operations. Associated protests by opposition groups are also likely on Republic Day to draw attention to their respective causes.
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CPI-Maoist calls for general strike across Telangana
The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) has called for a general strike in Mulugu district and several other districts within Telangana state. The strike action is to denounce the killing of three Maoists on 18 January by security forces during a security operation. Disruptions to transport and business operations are possible in Mulugu, as well as in Adilabad, Mancherial, Komaram-Bheem, Jayashankar-Bhupalpally and Bhadradri-Kothagudem districts. Associated attacks by CPI-Maoist members and supporters on security forces, infrastructure and railways are likely.
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Civil rights activists to protest in London and other cities
Civil rights activists associated with the Kill the Bill campaign have called for protests to be held in several cities, including London. Participants are scheduled to meet at 1200 hrs local time at Lincoln Inn Fields in the capital. Security presence is expected particularly in London as a large crowd is expected to gather. Transport disruptions and traffic is also likely. Similar protests in April 2021 saw clashes between police and demonstrators, with multiple arrests made and injures reported by authorities.